Sunday, March 21, 2010

Western Conference: Where will the Canucks finish?

Wow, is it already only 3 weeks left in the regular season?  Time sure does fly, doesn't it?
At this point, all the analysis has already begun regarding a certain topic: who makes the playoffs.  At the moment, with 92 points and the NW lead, the Canucks are only a couple games away from locking a playoff spot.  My question, however, is which spot?
All the analysis you'll be hearing everywhere else is about who will get the 8th seed in each conference, which is quite an interesting topic.  Right now, in the West, it's a battle between Detroit and Calgary, although St. Louis and Minnesota could still have an impact by stringing together a few wins.  However, for the Canucks, the more interesting story is in the top 4 seeds.  As of this morning, Chicago holds 1st with 97 points and the Central Division lead (CN), San Jose is in 2nd with 96 points and the Pacific Division lead (PC), and Vancouver is in 3rd with 92 points and the NW lead.  The 4th spot is Phoenix, with 95 points.  Now this is the race I want to look at, because I want to show how Vancouver could still win the West.

*A couple really good links to follow right now are the conference standings and Sports Club Stats.

Vancouver Canucks
Last night wasn't the best game for the Canucks.  After taking a 2-0 lead in the 1st period, the Red Wings came back with 3 goals in the 2nd.  We did manage to take the game to overtime, but Zetterberg got the OT winner for Detroit with 0.3 seconds left in the OT period :(
The Canucks play has been rather disappointing this week.  There was a loss to the Islanders on Tuesday, a win against San Jose on Thursday that could have easily been otherwise, then the OT loss on Saturday.  They are 6-2-2 in the last 10 games, and have a solid 6-point lead over Colorado for the NW division.
The Canucks have 10 games left, against the following teams: @ Edmonton, vs. Anaheim, @ San Jose, vs. Phoenix, @ Los Angeles, @ Anaheim, vs. Minnesota, vs. Colorado, @ San Jose, vs. Calgary.  With the Canucks at 13-6-1 in their own division so far this year, those divisional matchups could prove to be useful.  The games against LA and Anaheim could be a weakness, but the games against San Jose and Phoenix will be both the most challenging and the most beneficial should the Canucks win.

Chicago Blackhawks
Last year, Chicago finished 4th in the West, and worked their way to a Western Conference Final matchup with Central Division nemesis Detroit.  This year, when the Wings suffered many injuries to many of their star forwards, the Hawks were perfectly poised to take over the reigns for not just the CN lead, but the entire conference as well.
Although they have been smoothly sailing all season at the top of the conference, their lead is threatened.  After a pretty bad week, including some nasty altercations I don't want to hear anymore about, Chicago is now only 4-4-2 in their last 10 games.  Currently sitting 10 points above Nashville, their closest rival in the divisional standings, Chicago will obviously win the CN title.
The Hawks have 11 games left, against the following teams: vs. Phoenix, @ Columbus, vs. Columbus, @ St. Louis, @ Minnesota, @ New Jersey, vs. Flames, @ Dallas, vs. St. Louis, @ Colorado, vs. Detroit.  Obviously, the game with Phoenix doesn't help the Canucks much, but we need as much help as we can get from the others.  It's too bad the Canucks don't have any more games against the Hawks before the playoffs, otherwise we could have done the work ourselves.

San Jose Sharks
The Sharks have done well this season, as expected of them.  Dominating the Pacific all year long, they were favourites to clinch that title.  However, with their current play, that could easily be at risk.
San Jose has lost all 4 of their last games, and are now 3-6-1 in their last 10.  Although they've been fighting with the Hawks all season long for the West lead, their own division lead is now at risk, with Phoenix only 1 point behind them.  Things aren't looking so pretty anymore down in California.
The Sharks have 11 games left as well, against the following opponents: @ Edmonton, @ Minnesota, vs. Dallas, vs. Vancouver, vs. Colorado, @ Dallas, @ Minnesota, @ Colorado, @ Calgary, vs. Vancouver, vs. Phoenix.  Considering the Sharks are doing horribly right now on their NW road swing, this could work out just lovely for the Canucks.  The two games left between the Canucks and Sharks will prove to be quite important for the Canucks to win, and the only really troublesome game in there is that last one against Phoenix.

Phoenix Coyotes
This has been a crazy year in the desert.  Finishing 13th in the conference last year, plagued by financial woes, threats of moving to Hamilton, and an unfortunately weak fanbase, it is really quite surprising how well the Coyotes have done.  If anyone had bet $50 on this team being within 2 points of the conference lead with 10 games left in the season, they would now be a millionaire.
Phoenix is currently on a shocking 8-game winning streak, which is finally earning some well-deserved positive hometown press, and look to make the playoffs for the first time in many years.  To make this even crazier, they are now only 1 point behind the Sharks for the PC lead, and 2 points behind Chicago, who they beat in the shootout last night, for the conference lead.
The crazy Coyotes have 10 games left, against the following teams: @ Dallas, @ Chicago, @ Nashville, vs. Colorado, @ Vancouver, @ Calgary, vs. Edmonton, vs. Nashville, @ Los Angeles, @ San Jose.  Although Phoenix isn't that big of a threat to the Canucks yet, they will become one if they pass San Jose for the PC lead.  Once again, the Canucks have an opportunity to hold them back a bit, but otherwise we're looking for help from everyone else.... well, except San Jose and Chicago, of course.

So, what will happen?
It's quite obvious that the Canucks will have almost no trouble taking the NW title, which will give them at least 3rd in the West.  However, it would be nicer to have 1st or 2nd in the West, for both bragging rights and home ice advantage later on in the playoffs.
In order to go up a seed or two, the Canucks will have to play very well in their last 10 games, and will also need some help from the rest of the conference, especially their own division,  in holding down Chicago, San Jose, and Phoenix.  1st place would obviously be the best position, but 2nd will also be good.  It would also be great for Phoenix to be up at the top as well.
Of course, another interesting point to think about is what will happen in the bottom 4 playoff seeds, because, let's face it, nobody wants to face Detroit in the playoffs.  I'll look at playoff matchups in the next 2 weeks or so.

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